Adapted from McKnight’s Senior Living | November 14, 2024
The future of long-term care remains uncertain following the recent presidential election, according to Jeremy Stroiman, founder and CEO of Evans Senior Investments. This investment banking firm specializes in the sale of senior living communities and nursing homes nationwide.
During a recent webinar hosted by ESI, Stroiman and Hank Fuller, ESI’s director of evaluations, discussed how the election results could shape the future of the industry. One key area of interest is the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ staffing mandate. Fuller noted that when the mandate was proposed, 80% of nursing homes would not have met the required staffing levels.
“This staffing mandate, while focused on skilled nursing, has implications for both senior housing and skilled nursing facilities,” Fuller explained. “Had Kamala Harris won the election, we would have seen an even tighter labor market for healthcare workers.”
President-elect Donald Trump’s victory is seen as a significant win for both industries in terms of staffing. Trump’s immigration reform plans, which include the deportation of 10 to 20 million undocumented immigrants, are not expected to directly impact the long-term care industry, as it typically does not rely heavily on undocumented workers. However, Fuller warned of potential ripple effects across all industries, particularly in lower-wage sectors like hospitality, which could exacerbate staffing shortages in healthcare.
Since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, many healthcare workers have left the profession. In response, operators have introduced certified nursing assistant and registered nurse education classes, offering long-term growth and investment opportunities for free. Fuller suggested that a Trump administration could provide tax credits and incentives to create more jobs and employees for the industry.
Regarding the federal budget, Fuller highlighted Trump’s bold statements about reducing the size of government and his support for expanding private Medicare Advantage policies for older Americans. Additionally, Trump has proposed tax incentives for family caregivers and paid home healthcare workers, which could allow older adults to age in place longer, potentially impacting residential senior housing and care providers.
“While the Trump administration aims to keep inflation low, we have yet to see any proposed regulations to achieve this,” Fuller said. “This could significantly impact the cost of debt and capital in mergers and acquisitions.”
As the industry navigates these potential changes, staying informed and adaptable will be crucial for long-term care providers.
The Future of Long-Term Care Under the New Administration
The recent presidential election has left the future of long-term care uncertain. Key points to consider:
- Staffing Mandate: Potential changes to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ staffing requirements.
- Immigration Reform: Possible ripple effects on the labor market.
- Tax Incentives: Opportunities for tax credits and job creation in the healthcare sector.
- Medicare Advantage: Expansion plans for private policies.
- Home Care Incentives: Tax benefits for family caregivers and home healthcare workers.
Stay informed and adaptable to navigate these changes effectively.
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